Scientia 2000- 2001 Program:
Taking Chances: Risk and Randomness in Science and Society
The 2000-2001 Scientia Colloquia
Uncertainty is an inescapable condition of life, and Plato wondered whether "human history is all an affair of chance.” Comprehending the role of fortune, luck, and happenstance in the flow of experience has long exercised reflective minds.
One of the turning points of intellectual history was therefore the development of a precise theory of chance and the incorporation of that theory into virtually every scientific discipline. An understanding of chance has even become essential to many aspects of public and private life from interpreting public opinion polls to evaluating evidence in court, and from estimating the risks involved in public policy to making decisions about personal investments.
At the same time that considerations of chance have become ubiquitous to modern life, fundamental questions remain about the concept itself. What is it about an event that makes it probable or improbable? Is there more to chance than human ignorance? Are there irreducible uncertainties in nature that cannot be explained in other terms? Is the idea of probability innately given, or must it be relearned by the children of every generation? Do cultures separated in space or time have different conceptions of chance, or do they share a universal perspective? Can uncertainty interact with our esthetic sensibility, and contribute to the beauty of music, art, or literature? These questions and others will be addressed in a series of colloquia presented over the 2000-2001 academic year by Scientia of Rice University.
Fall, 2000 Colloquia
Tuesday, 19 September 4:00 p.m.
Theodore Porter
Professor of History, UCLA
“The Rise of Statistical Thinking"
Note: this colloquium will start promptly at 4:00 p.m. to allow audience members to depart in time to attend
the welcoming reception for Provost Eugene H. Levy and Erzsébet Merényi in Duncan Hall. The duration of that reception is being extended specifically to allow people to attend both it and Scientia.
Tuesday, 10 October
Sherrilyn Roush
Assistant Professor of Philosophy, Rice University
"The Anthropic Principle:Probability, Cosmology and Copernicus"
Panel Discussants:
Walter Isle, English
Patricia Reiff, Physics & Astronomy
Al Van Helden, History
There are many different anthropic principles, but all claim some relation between human beings and the way the physical universe is. According to the lore, when Copernicus taught us that the Earth was not at the center of things he gave us the lesson that human beings have no special status in the universe. Thus, all anthropic principles are taken to be anti-Copernican, even by their proponents. I will discuss the one anthropic principle I take to be valid-the Weak Anthropic Principle-and show that the application of this principle is not contrary to but an instance of something Copernicus taught us that is more important for science than the familiar "we are not special" refrain.
Tuesday, 14 November
Paul Stevenson
Professor of Physics and Astronomy, Rice University
“`Impossible' probabilities and quantum reality”
Panel Discussants:
Richard Grandy, Department of Philosophy
Peter Hartley, Department of Economics
Terrence Doody, Department of English
Quantum Theory is weird. It needs to be because reality is weird -- as many recent experiments have quantitatively demonstrated. I will try to explain the essence of this "quantum weirdness" in a completely non-technical way. My talk is aimed at an audience with no physics background. The notion of probability is central to Quantum Theory. However, probabilities do not combine in the `common-sense' manner of classical statistics. Situations arise where the theory predicts (and experiment confirms) probabilities that are "impossible" by ordinary logic. This effect is sometimes referred to as "quantum non-locality," but I side with those who find this term unhelpful, and I argue the real lesson is that arguments about "What would have happened if ..." are just not legitimate in the quantum world.
Tuesday, 5 December
David Scott
Professor of Statistics, Rice University
“Assessing Risk and Fairness: The Role of Statistical Science in Policy”
Panel Discussants:
Steve Klineberg, Department of Sociology
Randi Martin, Department of Psychology
Joan Strassmann, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology
Probability theory provides a mathematical framework for modeling risk. Philosophy considers fundamental questions of the nature and meaning of chance. But it falls upon statistical science to collect and analyze data to estimate risk, influence policy, and make decisions. Insurance provides a compelling case study for notions of fairness and subsidy. This talk will examine the notion of a fair game and consider its application in areas including decision making, social security, medical insurance, and exit polling. What are some of the elements of "fair" policies? A deeper understanding of statistical modeling and evaluation would illuminate subsidies implicit in public policy and would sharpen political debate.
Spring, 2001 Colloquia
Unless otherwise noted, all Colloquia will be held at 4:00 p.m. in the Kyle Morrow Room, Fondren Library. A wine and cheese reception will follow each event.
Thursday, 25 January, 2001
Larry Laudan, Historian of Science
Title: Negotiating risk in a risky world
This talk will examine some of the obstacles to the management and control of risks to life and limb in contemporary society. Chief among them are a general ignorance of the magnitude and relative sizes of risks faced in ordinary life, a distortion --often deliberate-- by the media and government of the nature of the risks we face that puts policy above science, and a curious pattern of adjustive behavior on the part of those suddenly faced with a safety improvement. In addition, the talk will show that many risk-reduction mechanisms turn out to be little more than measures for re-distributing rather than reducing risks.
Tuesday, 20 February, 2001
William Camfield, Art & Art History, Rice University
"Examples of Chance in the Visual Arts: Forced, Fudged, Bona Fide?"
in a special presentation and performance with The Art Guys
Bill Camfield, the Joseph and Joanna Nazro Mullen Professor of Art and the Chair of Rice's Department of Art & Art History, will discuss a selected sample of visual artists, drawn primarily from the 20th century, whose work demonstrates the role of chance, or what appears to be chance, in the creation of art. Bill's talk, which will be illustrated with a number of slides, will be followed by a special presentation by The Art Guys, who are described by the New York Times as "...a cross between Dada and David Letterman, John Cage and the Smothers Brothers." So be prepared for whatever may happen as The Art Guys roll the dice.
Tuesday, 20 March, 2001, 8:00 p.m. Note: The Bochner is an evening lecture.
The Bochner Lecture
Location: Duncan Hall Auditorium, Rice University
Daniel Kahneman
Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology and Professor of Public Affairs, Princeton University
"Experience and Memory: The Cognitive Psychology of Happiness"
Life is experienced in the present but evaluated as past: memories are all we get to keep. The lecture will explore the psychology of this aspect of the human condition. Experimental evidence indicates that memory for the hedonic and affective features of experience is susceptible to systematic errors. As a consequence, choices that are based on memories may not yield optimal consequences in experience. A moment-based approach to the evaluation of particular experiences and to the assessment of well-being is introduced, and contrasted to the prevalent memory-based approaches. This approach could help find empirical answers to some long-standing puzzles in the understanding of human well-being.
Tuesday, 17 April, 2001
David C. Queller, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Rice University
Tentative title: The Invisible Elbow: Conservation for Conservatives
Panel Discussants:
Neal Lane, University Professor, Physics & Astronomy, and Baker Institute
Greg Mikkelson, Center for the Study of Science & Technology
Donald Ostdiek, Director, Policy Studies Program
Abstract: Environmentalism is strongly associated with the political left, but I will argue that it is really rooted in a conservative view toward uncertainty. The world is complex and change always causes unintended and unanticipated effects. The conservative Edmund Burke already knew what the French revolutionaries learned at great cost: that large changes will usually go awry. Yet history's most powerful agent of change, the market economy, is happily embraced by conservatives, probably because the changes are tested in the trial-and-error of the marketplace. However, the test is imperfect, and unintended bad effects accumulate. Adam Smith's deft invisible hand is linked to a clumsy invisible elbow. Up to now, the good effects of the invisible hand have probably outweighed the bad effects of it trailing elbow. Nevertheless, grounds for conservative concern remain because of increased population and especially because globalization removes local trial-and-error, making us guinea pigs in an unreplicated experiment. Environmentalists stands to gain from conservative insights about local testing, about the difficulties of central control, and about using incentives to channel selfish behavior.
